Research

Articles, notes and analysis

Working notes from our own research process, covering signal construction, market structure, and the statistics of digital asset returns.

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2026.09.23Why Most Crypto Never Crosses OverMore than half of every token ever created is already dead. The point of failure is rarely the idea. It is the gap between a launch and durable institutional adoption, and the two engineered systems that decide which projects survive it.Research2026.09.16Tokenization Has a Pricing ProblemTrillions of dollars of securities are becoming eligible for blockchain rails. Less than forty billion is on chain today, and the pricing and risk layer that would let it move freely has not been built.Quantitative Research2026.09.01Backtest Bankruptcy: Why Most Onchain Quant Strategies Die Out of SampleA single in sample backtest is not evidence. Applying decades old TradFi overfitting controls to a representative onchain strategy shows how a 2.1 Sharpe collapses to statistical noise once tested properly.Quantitative Research2026.08.20The Tokenized Yield Trap: Why Onchain Real World Asset Yields Are Not What They SeemPutting a real world asset onchain does not remove its risk, it just moves the risk into a wrapper most investors never open. A look at what is actually backing the yield on today's largest tokenized treasury and private credit products.Capital Allocation2026.08.13A DEX Implied Volatility ProxyA closed form, oracle free fee based volatility proxy for Uniswap v3 and Panoptic, and a proof of exactly what it can and cannot tell you about structural implied volatility. Originally published on arXiv.Published Research2026.03.13Is Retail DeFi Dead? Part 1An onchain look at total value locked, capital concentration, and what holder data can and cannot tell us about who is actually left in DeFi.Research2026.03.10How to Price Perpetual Options: Five Models ComparedA comparative study of five pricing frameworks for perpetual options, spanning AMM-native fee accrual, funding-rate replication, probabilistic expiry, compound optionality, and nonlinear volatility feedback, evaluated on mathematical rigor and fit with on-chain, composable markets.Quantitative Research2025.12.01The DeFi Options Landscape Report 2025A full industry survey of the on-chain options market: six protocols compared architecture by architecture, where the liquidity actually sits, what the last five years of experiments got wrong, and where institutional adoption goes from here.Industry Research
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